Archived draft guide: Published September 6, 2026. The ADP figures, player roles and draft recommendations below reflect the preseason information available for this guide. For newer fantasy reporting, visit Fantasy Pulse.
Average draft position is useful right up until it isn’t.
ADP tells fantasy managers where players have been selected. It does not tell them whether those selections were good. It can also lag behind the NFL itself, particularly during the final days of draft season when injuries, depth-chart changes and roster moves can alter a player’s outlook faster than the market can adjust.
That is happening right now.
Josh Jacobs landing on the commissioner’s exempt list has transformed Green Bay’s backfield. Jaylen Waddle is beginning a new chapter in Denver. Michael Pittman Jr. is no longer an Indianapolis Colt. Several other players enter Week 1 with roles that look substantially different from what fantasy managers were projecting during the summer.
The result is a draft board with opportunities, but also traps.
For this guide, TSP is using a 12-team PPR league with one starting quarterback as the baseline. The ADP figures below reflect draft-market information available through September 6 and combine major fantasy platforms where noted.
The goal is not to identify players who will simply have good seasons.
The goal is to identify players capable of producing more than their draft price requires.
The TSP Draft Board
| Player | Current PPR Market | TSP View |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle, WR, DEN | Around Pick 48, WR21 | Target |
| Christian Watson, WR, GB | Around Pick 65, WR29 | Target |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE | Around Pick 65, RB26 | Target |
| Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX | Around Pick 83, QB10 | Target |
| Michael Pittman Jr., WR, PIT | Around Pick 93, WR37 | Platform-dependent target |
| Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC | Around Pick 104, WR42 | Target |
| Brock Purdy, QB, SF | Around Pick 113, QB13 | Late-QB target |
| MarShawn Lloyd, RB, GB | Around Pick 91, RB33, but moving fast | Target, but do not chase |
| Isaiah Likely, TE, NYG | Around Pick 105, TE11 | Late-TE target |
| Josh Allen, QB, BUF | Around Pick 23, QB1 | Too expensive at that cost |
| Quinshon Judkins, RB, CLE | Around Pick 45, RB20 | Too expensive at that cost |
TARGET: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Denver Broncos
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 48, WR21
This is the type of offseason change fantasy managers should be willing to pay attention to.
Denver did not make a minor investment in Jaylen Waddle. The Broncos sent Miami the No. 30 pick, No. 94 pick and No. 130 pick in the 2026 draft in exchange for Waddle and the No. 111 pick. General manager George Paton later described Waddle as one of the NFL’s more explosive players and an elite route runner.
That tells us something about intent.
Denver wanted another difference-maker in its passing game badly enough to surrender first-round capital for him.
Waddle arrives with three 1,000-yard seasons already on his résumé. Even during a quieter 2025 in Miami, he started 16 games and finished with 64 receptions, 910 yards and six touchdowns.
The fantasy market still has him around WR21 and roughly Pick 48 in PPR drafts. That price leaves room for the move to Denver to matter without requiring Waddle to reproduce the 1,356-yard season he delivered in 2022.
There are reasons not to push him too far. Courtland Sutton remains involved, and Denver has other receiving options. Waddle also has not topped 1,100 yards in any of the past three seasons.
But the Broncos paid a premium for a proven explosive receiver, and the draft price still treats him more like a conventional WR2 than a player with a legitimate path to a higher target and yardage ceiling.
TSP verdict: Waddle makes sense in the fourth round once the elite receivers have cleared the board. He is being drafted as a WR2 while carrying enough talent and potential volume to finish considerably higher.
TARGET: Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 65, WR29
Christian Watson has never lacked upside.
Availability has been the problem.
That distinction matters entering 2026 because Green Bay has made its commitment considerably clearer. The Packers signed Watson to a contract extension in June, and the receiving room around him has changed.
The statistical case is stronger than the surface numbers suggest.
From Weeks 8 through 18 last season, Watson averaged 61.1 receiving yards per game while producing 2.67 yards per route run. Among 109 qualifying receivers, that yards-per-route figure ranked fourth. He did it while running a route on only 68% of Green Bay’s passing plays.
That creates a straightforward fantasy thesis.
If Watson remains healthy and his route participation rises, he does not need a dramatic improvement in efficiency to beat his current draft position. More playing time alone could do it.
The market has noticed, but not completely. Watson is still going around WR29, with meaningful platform variation. Some ESPN rooms have been more cautious than the broader market.
Health is not a footnote here. It is the reason Watson remains available in this range.
TSP verdict: Watson is one of the better fifth- to sixth-round receiver bets on the board. We would rather accept his injury risk at this price than pay considerably more for a receiver whose ceiling is already built into his ADP.
TARGET: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 65, RB26
The market appears convinced that TreVeyon Henderson is eventually going to take over New England’s backfield.
The Patriots are not presenting it that way entering Week 1.
Their current unofficial depth chart lists Rhamondre Stevenson first and Henderson second. New England’s own offseason analysis described Stevenson as the better fit for between-the-tackles work and one of the league’s better pass-protecting running backs.
More importantly, Stevenson was efficient when healthy.
FantasyPros’ current analysis notes that he finished 2025 as RB21 in fantasy points per game and ranked fifth among qualifying backs in explosive-run rate, missed-tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. He also outperformed Henderson in yards per route run and pass protection.
The Patriots saw the same thing late in the season. Over New England’s final eight games, including the postseason, Stevenson averaged 5.7 yards per carry with a 26.4% forced missed-tackle rate.
This does not mean Henderson disappears. A committee remains the reasonable expectation.
But fantasy managers do not have to pay committee prices for both backs.
Stevenson is currently going around Pick 65 and RB26 in PPR drafts, with some platforms pushing him later.
TSP verdict: Stevenson does not need 80% of the workload. If he remains the preferred early-down and pass-protection option while receiving enough passing work, RB26 is a beatable price.
TARGET: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 83, QB10
There may not be a more important quarterback split in this year’s fantasy draft.
Over Trevor Lawrence’s first 10 games of 2025, he averaged 215 passing yards, 1.1 passing touchdowns and 16.6 fantasy points per game. His passer rating was 79.4.
Over his final seven regular-season games, Lawrence averaged 265 passing yards, 2.6 touchdown passes and 26.6 fantasy points per game. His yards per attempt climbed from 6.4 to 8.4, and his passer rating jumped to 108.6.
During that seven-game stretch, Lawrence was fantasy football’s QB1.
The full-season numbers were significant too. Lawrence started all 17 games and finished with 4,007 passing yards, 29 touchdown passes, 359 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. His 38 total touchdowns set a Jaguars franchise record.
The rushing touchdowns are the obvious regression concern.
Nine is a huge number. Building a projection that simply assumes another nine would be irresponsible.
But Lawrence does not need another nine to justify his current cost.
His PPR ADP sits around Pick 83. That allows fantasy managers to spend the first six rounds building the positions where they need multiple weekly starters and still acquire a quarterback who already demonstrated overall QB1 production for an extended stretch.
TSP verdict: Lawrence is one of our favorite quarterback targets. We prefer him in the seventh round or later rather than entering an early quarterback run.
TARGET: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 93, WR37, but highly platform-dependent
Michael Pittman Jr. may be the clearest example in this guide of why fantasy managers should look at their own site’s ADP rather than memorizing one universal number.
Current PPR data has placed Pittman around Pick 79 on ESPN and around Pick 112 on CBS. That is nearly three rounds of difference in a 12-team league.
TSP is interested in the cheaper Pittman.
Pittsburgh acquired him from Indianapolis this offseason and subsequently signed him to a new three-year contract. Pittman enters a receiver room led by DK Metcalf but without an overwhelming collection of established target competition behind the top two.
His final 2025 line of 80 receptions for 784 yards and seven touchdowns does not jump off the page.
The first half of the season tells a different story.
Through Week 10, Pittman was WR9 in fantasy points per game while commanding a 21% target share. His second half was hurt by his own physical issues and by the deterioration of Indianapolis’ quarterback situation.
There is still risk. Metcalf should command volume, and Pittman has never been a massive downfield-play receiver.
That is why the price matters.
TSP verdict: If Pittman is going around his ESPN price, we are less interested. If your room treats him like a WR4 and he survives into the eighth or ninth round, he becomes one of our preferred depth receivers.
TARGET: Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 104, WR42
Quentin Johnston is not here because of his full-season 2025 numbers.
He is here because those numbers may conceal what happened when he was actually healthy.
Johnston suffered a hamstring injury in Week 5 last season. When FantasyPros isolated his healthier stretches, Weeks 1 through 4 and Weeks 9 through 18, the picture changed significantly.
During those games Johnston commanded a 20.3% target share and 24.8% first-read share while producing 1.83 yards per route run. He also led the Chargers in deep targets and red-zone targets during that sample.
His PPR scoring rate over those games was 13.9 points per game, which would have placed him around WR16 on a full-season per-game basis.
Los Angeles has also changed offensive coordinators. Mike McDaniel now runs the Chargers offense, and the team exercised Johnston’s fifth-year option this offseason.
There is genuine target competition, particularly with Ladd McConkey in the same offense.
That keeps Johnston out of the middle rounds.
It does not explain a PPR composite ADP around Pick 104 and WR42, especially when some ESPN drafts are letting him slide beyond Pick 120.
TSP verdict: Johnston is exactly what we want in the ninth or tenth round. The downside is manageable at that price, while the healthy 2025 sample shows a considerably higher ceiling.
TARGET: Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 113, QB13
Trevor Lawrence is our preferred quarterback value.
Brock Purdy is the reason we do not panic if somebody drafts Lawrence first.
San Francisco’s offense looks different in 2026, but it hardly looks barren. The 49ers’ September 4 unofficial depth chart lists Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. as the starting receivers, George Kittle at tight end and Christian McCaffrey at running back, with Purdy at quarterback.
Purdy’s fantasy price remains modest.
His current PPR composite sits around Pick 113. ESPN has been closer to Pick 101, while other platforms have let him slide farther.
That is useful information beyond Purdy himself.
It demonstrates the depth of the position.
If quarterbacks such as Lawrence and Purdy remain available after fantasy managers have already constructed most of their starting RB and WR groups, there is less incentive to chase the position early.
Purdy does not possess Josh Allen’s rushing ceiling.
He does not have to.
TSP verdict: If you miss Lawrence, keep waiting. Purdy is a legitimate late-QB1 option who allows an entirely different roster construction.
TARGET, WITH A WARNING: MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 91, RB33, but moving quickly
No player in this guide demonstrates the danger of stale ADP better than MarShawn Lloyd.
A month ago, Lloyd looked like a late-round flier.
He may now open the season as Green Bay’s featured running back.
Josh Jacobs landed on the commissioner’s exempt list while his legal case remains under league investigation. Packers.com reported September 2 that Lloyd was “quite likely” to enter Week 1 as Green Bay’s feature back.
The opportunity is enormous.
The certainty is not.
Lloyd has seven career NFL touches: six carries and one reception.
His first two professional seasons were repeatedly interrupted by injuries, so fantasy managers are projecting his role mostly from talent and opportunity rather than an established NFL résumé.
The market has reacted violently. PPR ADP data has moved Lloyd into roughly the Pick 90 range, but the platform split is enormous and still changing. Some real-time rooms have pushed him much earlier.
This is where discipline matters.
Finding the breakout before everyone else is valuable. Paying increasingly higher prices because everyone else discovered the same breakout is not.
TSP verdict: Lloyd is absolutely draftable as Green Bay’s presumed lead back. Around the seventh or eighth round is defensible. If your room drives him into Round 5, the discount has disappeared.
LATE TIGHT END TARGET: Isaiah Likely, New York Giants
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 105, TE11
Fantasy managers who miss the top tight ends do not need to force the position.
Isaiah Likely offers another route.
The Giants signed Likely to a three-year contract this offseason after he spent his first four NFL seasons in Baltimore. New York’s current depth chart lists Likely first at tight end, ahead of Theo Johnson, Chris Manhertz and Thomas Fidone II.
The Giants have also been unusually direct about his opportunity. Their own offseason coverage described Likely as a potential top pass-catching option and a breakout candidate in John Harbaugh’s offense.
Likely has never had a full season as his team’s unquestioned TE1 because Mark Andrews occupied that position in Baltimore.
We have nevertheless seen the upside. In 2024, Likely produced career highs of 42 catches, 477 yards and six touchdowns.
His current market sits around TE11, with major platform differences. Some ESPN drafts have pushed him into the double-digit rounds.
TSP verdict: If you miss the premium TE tier, wait. Likely is one of the better late-round bets on expanded opportunity.
TOO EXPENSIVE: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 23, QB1
This is not a Josh Allen criticism.
It is a fantasy draft-price argument.
Allen is the consensus QB1 and remains one of the safest high-end assets at the position.
The problem is opportunity cost.
His current PPR composite has him going around Pick 23, with some major platforms pushing him even earlier.
Selecting Allen in the second round means passing on a potential RB1 or WR1 while the draft still has premium skill-position talent available.
Then look farther down the board.
Lawrence can be found around the seventh round. Purdy can survive considerably longer.
The question is not whether Allen will outscore those quarterbacks. He probably will.
The question is whether the difference between Allen and a later quarterback is greater than the difference between the running back or receiver you pass on in Round 2 and the skill player available several rounds later.
In a standard one-quarterback league, that is a much harder argument for Allen to win.
TSP verdict: Allen could finish QB1 and still be overpriced. We are not spending a second-round selection on him in a standard one-QB format. If he falls significantly beyond ADP, the equation changes.
TOO EXPENSIVE: Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns
Current PPR ADP: approximately Pick 45, RB20
Volume has value.
Fantasy managers can still pay too much for projected volume.
Quinshon Judkins enters Year 2 after dislocating his ankle and fracturing his fibula in Week 16 of his rookie season. He returned for offseason work and has participated in team drills, which is encouraging.
The current market is already charging for a healthy RB2 outcome. Judkins is going around Pick 45 and RB20 in PPR formats.
FantasyPros’ current expert consensus is slightly more cautious, and the larger concern is what managers are buying at that price. His rookie efficiency was not dominant enough to make health and role questions disappear, and Cleveland can still use other backs in passing situations.
Judkins can absolutely return useful RB2 production. That does not mean the fourth round is where we need to take the risk.
TSP verdict: We do not need to remove Judkins from the board. We need him to fall. At his current fourth-round cost, there are enough questions involving health, efficiency and receiving work to prefer other options. If he reaches the sixth round, reconsider.
The TSP Draft Plan
The lesson from this board is not to enter a fantasy draft carrying a rigid formula.
It is to understand where the supply exists.
In a one-quarterback league, there is enough depth to wait. Lawrence can be found around the seventh round. Purdy can survive considerably longer.
At tight end, managers who miss the premium tier can avoid chasing the next name simply because a position run begins. Likely offers a legitimate late-round alternative.
That frees the early portion of the draft for running backs and receivers.
Waddle gives us established NFL production attached to a new environment. Watson offers elite per-route efficiency if he can finally stay healthy. Johnston offers a cheaper version of the same upside calculation later in the draft.
At running back, Stevenson offers something different. He does not require an injury ahead of him to become useful because New England still lists him first on the depth chart. Lloyd has a much larger range of outcomes, but Jacobs’ absence has created the kind of sudden opportunity fantasy managers must react to.
The key is price discipline.
We like Lloyd. That does not mean we like Lloyd in the fifth round.
We know Josh Allen is one of football’s best players. That does not mean a second-round quarterback is the best way to build a fantasy roster.
A useful fantasy ranking should never simply answer: Who is better?
The question that wins drafts is: Who gives me the most production compared with what I have to spend to get him?
That is the board TSP would take into a draft this week.
