Matthew Stafford vs Bills: Film and Data, Oct. 12, 2026

TSP Quarterback Reports · Full-game film and data analysis

October 12, 2026SoFi StadiumBills 37, Rams 34 (OT)

Cmp / Att: 40 / 54
Pass yards: 383
Pass TD: 3
Interceptions: 0
Sacks: 1
Rushes: 0
Rush yards: 0
Rush TD: 0

Matthew Stafford during the Bills–Rams game at SoFi Stadium on October 12, 2026 — Matthew Stafford during the October 12 game at SoFi Stadium. Photograph: Abigail Dean / Los Angeles Rams.

The game in six charts

Matthew Stafford: outcomes with and without pressure. 5/14 complete under pressure; 35/40 when unpressured. — 5/14 complete under pressure; 35/40 when unpressured. Bars classify all 55 primary dropbacks; completion fractions use passing attempts within each group.

Matthew Stafford: how much came from screens. 5/5 screen passes were completed for 45 yards. — 5/5 screen passes were completed for 45 yards. Screens accounted for 11.7% of passing yards; their usage denominator is 55 primary dropbacks.

Matthew Stafford: completion by throw depth. 33/38 throws below 10 air yards were complete. — 33/38 throws below 10 air yards were complete. All 54 credited throws are included; bar lengths show attempts, with completions in blue.

Matthew Stafford: play-action usage and production. 16/55 dropbacks used play action, yielding 139 credited passing yards. — 16/55 dropbacks used play action, yielding 139 credited passing yards. Play action can overlap screens; passing totals exclude scramble yards and sack losses.

Matthew Stafford: when the yards came. 157 passing yards came in the fourth quarter and overtime. — 157 passing yards came in the fourth quarter and overtime. Rushing uses credited game totals, including designed quarterback runs outside the primary dropback population.

Watch the quarterback highlights

Matthew Stafford's best throws from 3-TD game vs. Bills | Week 5Official NFL · 1:59 · Watch on YouTube

What to watch

The official highlights show the game action. The film findings below connect individual outcomes to the observed rush, receiving structure and quarterback movement.

Watch on YouTube
Watch Matthew Stafford’s official NFL highlights

Film findings

These examples show how the observed rush, run action and receiving structure relate to specific game outcomes.

Q2 · 03:15

1st-and-10 at LA 47

Sack: 6 yards lost

Rushers: 6
Pressure: Yes
Blitz: Yes
Screen: No

Watch this play

Read the film observations

Stafford shows the ball toward Kyren Williams after an under-center snap, retains it and moves left. Dorian Williams attacks from behind Buffalo’s front toward the interior.

Six defenders attack before the passing decision. DeWayne Carter works past Alaric Jackson on the rollout side and brings Stafford down at the Rams’ 41 for a six-yard sack. The rush reaches Stafford during the retained passing phase, establishing pressure after the visible run fake.

DAZN NFL Game Pass: Bills @ Rams, Coaches Film

Wide sampled 00:32:02–00:32:13End zone sampled 00:32:17–00:32:28

Q4 · 10:03

3rd-and-3 at LA 48

P.Nacua reception: 4 yards

Rushers: 4
Pressure: Yes
Blitz: Yes
Screen: No

Read the film observations

Buffalo drops Rousseau into the underneath receiving area and adds Dorian Williams from an off-ball alignment. Williams joins the three remaining front attackers, producing four total rushers with an off-ball blitz.

Kyren Williams crosses to engage the approaching linebacker, whose path reaches the delivery space before Stafford throws left to Nacua. That intrusion establishes pressure despite the completed pass. Nacua retains the catch against immediate Benford contact, converting third-and-three with four yards.

DAZN NFL Game Pass: Bills @ Rams, Coaches Film

Wide sampled 01:13:14–01:13:25End zone sampled 01:13:32–01:13:38wide UI 73:14–25end_zone UI 73:32–38

Q4 · 09:38

1st-and-10 at BUF 48

T.Higbee reception: 30 yards

Rushers: 6
Pressure: No
Blitz: Yes
Screen: No

Read the film observations

Higbee crosses the under-center formation before releasing up the left seam. Stafford presents the ball toward Kyren Williams, retains it and sets to throw against five front rushers and off-ball Dorian Williams.

All six rush paths remain engaged through Stafford’s balanced delivery. Higbee controls the body-level pass in bounds and runs toward the sideline for 30 yards. The play combines visible play-action and a six-man rush with an undisturbed passing platform.

DAZN NFL Game Pass: Bills @ Rams, Coaches Film

Wide sampled 01:13:46–01:13:58End zone sampled 01:14:03–01:14:13

OT · 05:41

1st-and-10 at BUF 35

Incomplete pass to K.Williams

Rushers: 5
Pressure: Yes
Blitz: No
Screen: No

Read the film observations

Kyren Williams moves laterally across the backfield before the under-center snap. Stafford then takes a direct passing drop without a visible post-snap run fake. Five front defenders attack while the off-ball defenders remain in coverage.

Rousseau clears the right-side blocker and reaches Stafford’s delivery shoulder while the ball remains in his hand. The immediate threat establishes pressure. The pass toward Williams down the middle finishes ahead and to his left, beyond his receiving reach, producing an uncatchable target and no receiver drop.

DAZN NFL Game Pass: Bills @ Rams, Coaches Film

Wide: 01:36:22 to 01:36:31End zone: 01:36:38 to 01:36:49wide UI 96:22–31end_zone UI 96:38–49

Download the film analysis (JSON)

Film coverage and classifications

4 examples are developed below. The complete chart retains all 59 quarterback events, including 55 counted dropbacks and 4 supplemental events. Unknown tactical fields remain explicit.

Every quarterback event was matched to the official game situation and sequence in the wide and end-zone Coaches Film views. Tactical observations use inspection of chronological saved frame sequences from authenticated playback. Each play retains its supporting view, footage locator and field observation. Pressure, screens, play action, rush counts and off-ball rush involvement are classified on every primary dropback. Catchability and drops are classified on every eligible receiving target. Credited receptions establish a legal receiving opportunity and no-drop outcome; those derived judgments are labeled separately from film observations. No validated manual snap-to-release interval was measured. Footage locators refer to the linked DAZN edition; no footage is reproduced.

Depth, yardage and the decisive possession

Where the recorded yardage came from — Source: nflverse/nflfastR, October 12, 2026. Completed air yards and yards after catch cover all 40 completions and sum to 383 passing yards. This decomposition does not allocate individual credit.

Throw depth against the pregame baseline — All 54 game throws versus 159 throws in this quarterback's first four 2026 games. Depth uses recorded air yards; nullified plays, two-point attempts and spikes are excluded. Bars start at zero on a common 0–60% scale. Source: nflverse/nflfastR.

Passing by depth and direction — Completions / attempts with passing yards below. All 54 game throws have recorded air yards and direction. The zones are bins, not exact target coordinates. Source: nflverse/nflfastR.

The drive that forced overtime — Selected quarterback events; game clock is the time before the snap. The team finish is shown for context. This is not a diagram of routes or intended play design. Source: NFL gamebook and nflverse/nflfastR.

Outcomes across the full dropback record — All 55 counted dropbacks, in order. Blue bars show positive EPA and rust bars negative EPA. Black dots identify scrambles. Event EPA includes penalties attached to counted plays; no-play penalties are excluded. Both quarterbacks use the same −2 to +5 point range. Source: nflfastR model.

Read the detailed game analysis

Matthew Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills at SoFi Stadium on October 12. His 40 completions on 54 attempts included six on the final possession of regulation, when Los Angeles drove from its own 37-yard line to the end zone to tie the game.

The passing game covered more ground after the catch than through the air. Stafford's average target traveled 6.4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, down from 9.6 across his first four games of the season. Receivers contributed 216 yards after the catch, accounting for 56.4 percent of his passing total.

Short throws supplied most of the yardage

Stafford directed 38 of his 54 attempts behind the line of scrimmage or fewer than 10 yards downfield. He completed 33 of those passes for 246 yards. Throws behind the line alone made up 18.5 percent of his attempts, compared with 8.2 percent in the first four games. That change describes where the ball went, without establishing whether the calls or Buffalo's coverage dictated it.

The third quarter showed how those throws could produce substantial gains. Stafford passed for 127 yards in the period, with 101 coming after the catch. Blake Corum's 34-yard reception began with a throw two yards beyond the line, followed by 32 yards of running. Tyler Higbee also caught a pass 16 yards downfield and added 12 more for a 28-yard gain.

On the 37 completions covered by the nflfastR expected-YAC model, receivers gained 216 yards after the catch against 208.8 expected yards. The difference was 0.19 yards per covered catch. Stafford's three touchdown catches at the goal line fall outside this model's eligible locations, so their missing expectations are excluded. The comparison describes the covered catches and does not assign individual credit.

Nacua handled nearly half the targets

Puka Nacua was the target on 24 attempts, or 44.4 percent of Stafford's throws. He caught 17 for 138 yards and a touchdown. His receptions included 81 yards after the catch, extending a workload built largely around shorter passes. His two-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter required no yards after the catch.

Stafford's other receivers supplied several of the longer gains. Higbee finished with five catches for 83 yards, while Corum had three for 53. Davante Adams caught five passes for 51 yards and two touchdowns. Nacua's volume anchored the distribution, but Los Angeles reached the end zone through Adams twice and gained important yardage from its backs and tight ends.

Passing from protected and pressured platforms

Five visible screens supply 45 of 383 credited passing yards, representing 11.7% of the total. Stafford completes all five attempts. His other throws produce 35 completions on 49 attempts for 338 yards.

Stafford uses visible play action on 16 of his 55 dropbacks. That condition produces 10 completions on 15 throws for 139 yards. Buffalo’s rush structure also varies independently of its results. One fourth-quarter conversion combines an off-ball blitz with only four total rushers; another yields a 30-yard Higbee completion against six rushers who remain blocked through delivery.

Stafford faced pressure on 15 of 55 dropbacks (27.3%). He completed 5 of 14 passes for 53 yards and took one sack, compared with 35 of 40 for 330 yards without pressure. His pressured completion rate was 35.7%, against 87.5% from an undisturbed platform. Most of the Rams’ passing production came from the protected condition. These game-specific splits do not establish a season-long response to pressure.

The efficiency comparison has limits

Stafford's 55 counted dropbacks generated 19.44 expected points added: 20.47 from 54 throws, minus 1.03 on one sack. There were no recorded scrambles. His 0.353 EPA per throw-or-sack event was close to Allen's 0.366 before Allen's scrambles were included. Stafford's first four games averaged 0.053 across 169 dropbacks. These whole-play outcomes include receiving, protection and penalties as well as the quarterback's contribution.

His 74.1 percent completion rate was closer to the completion model's expectation than the raw percentage might suggest. The nflfastR play-by-play model expected 72.8 percent, leaving Stafford 1.27 percentage points above expectation. His first four games were approximately even with expectation. The shorter targets and strong receiving gains accompanied the improved production; the model describes a modest surplus of completions rather than a large accuracy advantage across the whole game.

Stafford converted 7 of 12 third-down dropbacks, compared with 14 of 40 in his first four games. That subset includes passing, sacks and any source-classified scrambles, rather than every Rams third-down play. His fourth-quarter completion to Williams from third-and-seven at the Buffalo 10 supplied one of those conversions and moved the tying drive to the one-yard line.

The longer throws were less consistent. Stafford completed one of three attempts traveling at least 20 air yards, gaining 21 yards on a pass to Davis Allen in overtime. Both deep incompletions targeted Nacua, including a 49-air-yard attempt in the closing seconds of the first half. Three throws are too few to establish a lasting deep-passing trend. The public play-by-play also cannot provide a complete account of pressure, coverage or responsibility for each outcome.

Six completions carried the tying drive

After Buffalo went ahead 34-27 with 1:39 remaining in regulation, Los Angeles took over at its own 37. Stafford completed six of seven passes for 62 yards on the possession. The series included a 16-yard connection to Nacua and a 15-yard completion to Adams, moving the Rams into the red zone.

The decisive conversion came on third-and-seven from the Buffalo 10. With 31 seconds remaining at the snap, Stafford completed a nine-yard pass to Kyren Williams, taking Los Angeles to the one-yard line. Williams scored on the next play, which began with eight seconds remaining. Harrison Mevis' extra point tied the game 34-34.

The overtime chance ended on a blocked kick

Los Angeles recovered James Cook's fumble on Buffalo's opening overtime possession. Stafford then completed three of five throws for 47 yards, including separate 21-yard gains to Allen and Nacua. The Rams reached the Buffalo 30, but a third-down run gained nothing, leaving a 48-yard field-goal attempt for Mevis.

Greg Rousseau blocked the kick. Buffalo's next drive included 32 rushing yards by Josh Allen, and Tyler Bass made a 45-yard field goal to finish the game. Stafford's late passing had put Los Angeles in position to tie the game and then attempt an overtime winner; the blocked field goal and Buffalo's ensuing score determined the final result.

Explore all 59 quarterback events and film classifications

The full-game film chart

The full record contains 55 counted quarterback dropbacks and 4 supplemental events. Use the chart to connect each result with its available film evidence, then examine the classified conditions and their outcomes.

Counted dropbacks: 55Throws, sacks and source-classified scrambles
Matched wide and end-zone views: 55/55Counted dropbacks with both footage views
Supplemental events: 4/4Both views; excluded from dropback rates

Classification coverage

Film field	Classified / eligible	Observed values	Unresolved
Pressure before decision	55/55	15 yes / 40 no (27.3% yes)	0 unclear; 0 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Screen	55/55	5 yes / 50 no (9.1% yes)	0 unclear; 0 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Play-action mechanics	55/55	16 yes / 39 no (29.1% yes)	0 unclear; 0 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Initial rushers	55/55	55 classified	0 unclear; 0 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Total rushers	55/55	55 classified	0 unclear; 0 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Five-plus rush	55/55	20 yes / 35 no (36.4% yes)	0 unclear; 0 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Role-based blitz	55/55	11 yes / 44 no (20.0% yes)	0 unclear; 0 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Throwaway	54/54	0 yes / 54 no (0.0% yes)	0 unclear; 0 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Catchability	54/54	54 classified	0 unclear; 0 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Drop	54/54	0 yes / 54 no (0.0% yes)	0 unclear; 0 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Pass deflected at line	0/54	No classified values	40 unclear; 14 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Contact after release	19/54	6 yes / 13 no	28 unclear; 7 unclassified; 0 not reviewed
Snap-to-release interval	0/54	No classified values	9 unclear; 45 unclassified; 0 not reviewed

The eligible denominator is counted dropbacks for rush, pressure and action fields, and counted throws for throwaway fields. Catchability/drop retain the full throw population but separately exclude verified intentional throwaways from receiving eligibility. Not-applicable values and unresolved observations are shown separately. A classified-subset split does not establish the full-game rate.

Production by observed film condition

Each field shows its eligible population, resolved observations and unknowns. Only plays with a resolved condition enter that condition’s production line. Unknowns remain excluded from both Yes and No.