How the Dodgers’ bullpen lost the lead on walks, then two home runs

The Dodgers' bullpen threw 56 of 84 pitches for strikes in NLCS Game 4, a 66.7% rate. Its work split into sharply different stretches. Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia combined for 10 strikes in 23 pitches while obtaining the last two outs of the fifth. Tanner Scott and Edwin Díaz followed with 46 strikes in 61 pitches over the final four innings.

Milwaukee tied the game during the first stretch without getting a hit against either reliever. The Brewers then managed only two hits against Scott and Díaz, but both were solo home runs. The sequence turned a 4-3 Dodgers lead when Tyler Glasnow departed into a 6-4 defeat on October 15, completing Milwaukee's NLCS sweep.

The combined relief line was 4⅔ innings, two hits, two earned runs, three walks and four strikeouts. Three runs actually crossed while the bullpen pitched. David Hamilton, who had singled against Glasnow, scored the tying run on Vesia's bases-loaded walk. His run remained charged to the starter. Reading the bullpen's two-run total alone misses its role in surrendering the lead.

Phillips entered with Hamilton on first and one out. Jackson Chourio lined a 1-2 sweeper to centre at 109.8 mph, where Andy Pages caught it. Hamilton stole second during Brice Turang's next plate appearance. Phillips threw three balls before an intentional walk was awarded, with an automatic fourth ball completing the pass. Those were three physical pitches, rather than four.

William Contreras then walked on six pitches. Phillips began with a called sweeper, fell behind 3-1 and recovered with a 97.7 mph fastball swing and miss. His full-count sweeper bounced, loading the bases and ending his appearance. Phillips obtained one out on 14 pitches, with two walks and no hit allowed.

Eight of those 14 pitches were sweepers, a 57.1% share against 157 of 423 pitches, or 37.1%, during his regular season. Five of the eight were balls. The increased share describes the outing; the more immediate problem was where those pitches finished.

Vesia inherited the loaded bases and threw four balls to Jake Bauers. Two four-seamers missed before a slider and another four-seamer completed the walk. The final fastball was tracked above the strike zone. Hamilton came home, and the score was 4-4. Christian Yelich subsequently grounded to Max Muncy, ending the inning with three Brewers stranded.

Vesia recorded one out in nine pitches, with one walk. Neither he nor Phillips was charged with a run. Their scoreless individual lines therefore need the inherited-run context: the bullpen entered with a one-run lead and finished the fifth tied.

Vesia's five four-seamers represented 55.6% of his outing, almost identical to his regular-season 55.8% share, or 564 of 1,011 pitches. They averaged 92.0 mph against 92.1 mph for the season. A broad change in fastball use or speed was not necessary for the four-pitch walk that tied the game.

Scott opened the sixth by getting Garrett Mitchell to 0-2 on sliders, one called and one missed. Two more sliders and a fastball missed the zone. Mitchell then drove a 97.4 mph four-seamer tracked near the middle of the zone to centre for a 409-foot home run, hit at 105.2 mph. Milwaukee led for good.

Scott retired the next three hitters, striking out Cooper Pratt and Hamilton around Sal Frelick's groundout. Those outs took another 18 pitches. His inning ended with one hit, one earned run and two strikeouts on 24 pitches, without a walk.

He used 15 sliders, a 62.5% share compared with 490 of 963 pitches, or 50.9%, in the regular season. Their 90.1 mph average exceeded his season's 89.3 mph. The slider drew two misses on eight swings. Mitchell's decisive plate appearance started with four sliders, then ended with consecutive fastballs after the count reached 2-2.

Díaz recorded nine outs on 37 pitches over the final three innings. He retired his first eight batters, keeping the deficit at one through the seventh and eighth and into the ninth. That stretch included Mitchell's 110.8 mph lineout to Pages in the eighth, a reminder that outs did not always mean weak contact.

His slider generated all six of his missed swings, on 12 swings, a 50.0% rate. Its regular-season comparison was 23 misses on 87 swings, or 26.4%. His four-seamer generated no misses on nine swings. Díaz threw 19 fastballs and 18 sliders, with both pitches averaging about 0.9 mph faster than their respective season averages.

With two outs in the ninth, Hamilton took a fastball for ball one and drove a 90.2 mph slider near the middle of the zone to right-centre for a 402-foot homer. Díaz struck out Chourio to finish with one earned run and two strikeouts. His slider's six misses and Hamilton's homer belong in the same assessment: the pitch created most of the bullpen's misses, but one of its four balls put in play became the final run.