Henderson’s fastball found misses, but two throwing errors changed his Game 2

Logan Henderson finished the first inning with three fastballs to Shohei Ohtani. The first was called a strike, the second drew a miss, and the third, at 94.6 mph, finished above Ohtani’s recorded strike-zone boundary and drew another miss for strike three.

That sequence revealed the most effective part of Henderson’s arsenal in NLCS Game 2. His four-seamer supplied eight of nine recorded whiffs across 64 pitches. The rest of his outing required a different explanation: Los Angeles scored four runs without a run-scoring hit, aided by two throwing errors charged to Henderson.

The Milwaukee starter recorded four innings, allowing three hits, four runs, two earned, and two walks with two strikeouts at American Family Field on October 12. He faced two more hitters in the fifth without recording an out. Dustin May then retired three consecutive batters, although the runner he inherited from Henderson scored on a sacrifice fly. The Brewers ultimately won 7–4.

More four-seamers and a changeup without a miss

Henderson’s regular-season baseline contains 1,505 physical pitches from 18 Brewers starts, April 4 through September 23. His fastball made up 46.4% of that sample and averaged 93.1 mph. In Game 2, he threw 33 four-seamers, a 51.6% share, at an average of 93.9 mph. The modest increase in usage accompanied a harder average pitch.

The fastball generated eight recorded whiffs in 20 swing attempts and six called strikes. One of those whiffs was a caught foul tip, which involves bat contact but belongs in the conventional tracking whiff count. Ohtani’s three-pitch strikeout shows the cleaner swing-and-miss version: a taken fastball followed by two unsuccessful swings.

The changeup remained prominent, with 18 pitches and a 28.1% share, down from 35.2% during the regular season. None of its eight swings produced a whiff. Henderson also used nine cutters and four sweepers. The cutter supplied his only whiff outside the four-seam classification.

That concentration matters without proving the changeup failed as a whole. A pitch can contribute through a taken strike or a useful ball in play. Henderson recorded two called strikes with changeups, and his overall whiff rate was 25.7%, close to the regular-season 26.5%. He allowed 14 balls in play, so defense and contact outcomes occupied a large part of the outing.

His October 4 postseason start offers another comparison. Henderson threw 72 pitches in five innings, with four strikeouts and nine whiffs in 34 swings. He used 29 changeups that day, compared with 18 in Game 2. Monday’s fastball increase therefore coexisted with a lower changeup share against both the season sample and that prior start.

The pitch ledger cannot replace the throwing record

The first Dodgers run began with Mookie Betts’ leadoff walk. He advanced on Freddie Freeman’s groundout and Henderson’s wild pitch before Teoscar Hernández’s sacrifice fly. Henderson’s subsequent strikeout of Ohtani limited that inning, but the fastball finish did not erase the earlier baserunner and advancement.

In the third, Tommy Edman and Betts singled. Freeman then hit a ball that Sal Frelick caught near the right-field warning track. With Edman at third, Henderson’s errant pickoff throw during Hernández’s plate appearance brought him home. That throw belongs to the game’s event record rather than the physical pitch ledger.

Henderson retired the side on eight pitches in the fourth, entering the fifth with 59 pitches and a 3–2 lead. Kyle Tucker doubled to begin the inning. On Edman’s ensuing sacrifice bunt, Henderson’s throwing error allowed Tucker to score and Edman to reach second. Henderson departed after five pitches in that inning and no outs.

May’s groundout advanced Edman to third, and Freeman’s sacrifice fly scored him. Both fifth-inning runs remained charged to Henderson. Official earned-run accounting leaves two of the four total runs unearned; it does not turn the throwing errors into events unrelated to his outing.

Contact also deserves a qualification. Six of 14 measured balls in play reached 95 mph, compared with a 36.9% hard-hit rate in his regular-season sample. The average exit velocity, 87.2 mph, was close to his season 87.6 mph. Frelick’s catch demonstrates why a successful pitch result and a harmless contact result need not be the same thing.

Henderson’s fastball averaged 94.3 mph in the first inning and 92.4 mph across three measured four-seamers in the fifth. Those small inning samples show the observed change, not its cause. They cannot establish fatigue, especially when the final inning comprised only two hitters.

The useful conclusion is specific: Henderson retained a fastball capable of missing bats, but his secondary pitches supplied little swing-and-miss support and his own throwing errors changed the scoring. A future outing would test whether the changeup again contributes finishes and whether cleaner handling of runners lets his pitch execution translate into a better line.