Drew Rasmussen’s Cutter and Sinker: The Arsenal Behind His World Series Matchup

Nathaniel Lowe saw a 96.5 mph four-seamer above the zone, then a 90.4 mph cutter for strike three. The second-inning sequence in ALCS Game 5 showed a useful distinction in Drew Rasmussen’s arsenal: the cutter supplied a slower route to a strikeout, while his sinker operated much closer to four-seam velocity.

Those two pitches accounted for more than half his 2026 regular-season repertoire. Their combined share fell in his last completed start, but their average speeds barely changed. The adjustment was principally how often he used them, rather than a newly faster sinker or harder cutter.

This study compares all 2,660 physical pitches in Rasmussen’s 30 regular-season starts, March 26–September 22, with all 95 from his October 18 start at Cleveland. He allowed one run in seven innings in Tampa Bay’s 3–1 ALCS Game 5 win. The Rays subsequently advanced to face Milwaukee in the World Series. The baseline contains no postseason pitches, and the Game 5 sample is kept separate throughout.

The Cutter and Sinker Were His Season Foundation

Rasmussen threw 768 cutters and 633 sinkers during the regular season, a combined 52.7% of his pitches. The four-seamer supplied another 28.0%. In Game 5, the cutter and sinker combined for 38 of 95 pitches, or 40.0%, while the four-seamer accounted for 29. The changeup and occasional breaking ball remain in every usage denominator.

The velocity comparison is close for these two fastball types. The cutter averaged 90.0 mph in the regular season and 90.1 in Game 5; the sinker averaged 95.3 and 95.2. Rounded to a tenth, the changes were just 0.1 mph in opposite directions. A change in pitch mix should not be described as a velocity surge.

The Lineup Changes the Opportunities

The opponent mix complicates the raw shares. Cleveland hitters batted left-handed on 80 of the 95 pitches, or 84.2%, compared with 1,606 of 2,660 regular-season pitches, or 60.4%. Rasmussen used his sinker more frequently against right-handed hitters in the season sample: 362 of 1,054 pitches, 34.3%, compared with 271 of 1,606 against left-handers, 16.9%.

That difference supplies a concrete reason the overall sinker share could fall against this Cleveland lineup. Even within the left-handed split, however, the sinker declined to 10 of 80 pitches, 12.5%, and the cutter to 19 of 80, 23.8%, from 27.2% in the regular season. Opportunity explains part of the mix; it does not account for the entire change.

A Strikeout Pitch Can Also Give Up the Hits

The cutter finished two of Rasmussen’s six strikeouts. Against Lowe, an 87.3 mph changeup was called for a strike, an 89.5 mph cutter was fouled off, and the high four-seamer was called a ball before the 90.4 mph cutter ended the plate appearance. The ledger establishes the sequence and locations. It cannot establish what Lowe expected or where the catcher wanted each pitch.

The complication is contact. Three of Cleveland’s four hits came on cutters. Hitters put four cutters in play, with the other producing an out. All three balls put in play against the sinker became outs, but three contacts are a small sample, and zero hits do not establish a superior pitch. These were different uses and outcomes within one outing.

For the full Game 5 contact-and-changeup analysis, the existing report follows Rasmussen’s seven innings and departure. Here, the narrower lesson for the World Series is the range already present in his fastball family: a roughly 90 mph cutter, a roughly 95 mph sinker and a four-seamer at similar velocity to the sinker. Cleveland’s contact results cannot be carried over as a prediction for Milwaukee.

Sources and Complete Pitch Record

The raw Statcast gamefeed and official MLB event record were retrieved again October 23. All 95 unique physical pitch IDs reconcile between them, as do the 25 batters faced and 21 outs. The regular-season CSV reconciles to 30 official starts and 2,660 pitches. No target pitch lacks release speed, plate location, spin or extension. Pitch classes follow the source; no intended target, pitch tunneling or video analysis is inferred.

The complete 95-pitch CSV accompanies the earlier report. The static table below lists every physical pitch again for this comparison; its result column describes the individual pitch, while the final column identifies the eventual plate-appearance result.