Nick Martinez’s Changeup Anchored a Different Mix in ALCS Game 4

Travis Bazzana watched a 77.7 mph changeup become strike one. After a cutter missed high, another changeup, this one at 77.8, gave Nick Martinez strike two. The finish was different: a 94.2 mph four-seam fastball above Bazzana’s recorded strike zone and a swing through it.

The second-inning strikeout showed how Martinez could move through Cleveland without a large strikeout total. He allowed one run in 5⅓ innings Saturday at Progressive Field, helping Tampa Bay win ALCS Game 4 7-3 and tie the series at two games each. His line included two hits, two walks and three strikeouts on 79 pitches.

The changeup led his five-pitch mix, but its importance extended beyond how often he threw it. Martinez sharply reduced his sinker from its regular-season share, used more four-seamers and sliders, and obtained twice as many called strikes as misses. His changeup earned strikes on takes and kept contact soft. Those were useful paths through a lineup that still struck several other pitches hard.

The sinker reduction survived a fairer comparison

Martinez threw seven sinkers, 8.9% of his pitches, against a regular-season share of 31.7%. His four-seamer increased from 12.6% to 22.8% and his slider from 3.8% to 11.4%. The changeup rose more modestly, from 25.8% to 29.1%, with 23 pitches. His 22 cutters supplied another 27.8% of the outing.

The comparison uses all 2,524 physical pitches from his 31 regular-season starts, March 30 through September 27. Postseason appearances stay separate. Cleveland’s actual batting sides also matter: 16 of the 18 hitters he faced batted left-handed, accounting for 73 of 79 pitches. His regular-season left-handed share had been 58.9%.

Even within the left-handed group, the sinker reduction was substantial: four of 73 pitches Saturday, 5.5%, against 26.4% across 1,487 regular-season pitches. His four-seamer and slider shares also increased within that group. The changeup was much closer to its established left-handed use, 30.1% against 28.9%. This was a familiar pitch doing important work alongside a different selection of fastballs and breaking balls.

Strikes on takes, outs on contact

Martinez’s changeup produced five called strikes and four misses in 12 swings. Its four balls in play became four outs at exit speeds of 83.1, 42.2, 66.4 and 70.9 mph, an average of 65.7. Those results gave him strikes without swings and outs without strikeouts.

The slider’s role was especially concentrated. Seven of his nine sliders opened an at-bat: five were taken for strikes, one drew a miss and one was a ball. Overall, the pitch delivered five called strikes and one miss. One swing cannot establish a meaningful slider whiff trend; the taken strikes supplied its value here.

Martinez opened 12 of 18 plate appearances with a strike or contact result. He recorded 16 called strikes and eight misses in 37 nonbunt swings. His 53 official strikes also include fouls and balls in play, so that total answers a different question from how often Cleveland swung through a pitch.

His four-seamer averaged 93.5 mph and the changeup 77.7, a 15.8 mph gap. Average induced vertical break was 17.8 inches for the four-seamer and 2.5 for the changeup. That measure removes gravity’s effect; it does not mean the ball physically rises. The averages establish different speed and movement profiles without proving the pitches followed the same path or revealing what hitters expected.

Four pitches, two different finishes

With two outs in the fourth, Jo Adell took an 89.5 mph cutter for strike one, then fouled off a 92.7 mph sinker and a 93.0 mph four-seamer. At 0-2, Martinez’s 77.6 mph changeup finished below the recorded zone. Adell missed it for a blocked swinging strike, ending the inning.

The final pitch was 15.4 mph slower than the previous one. Four consecutive pitches came from four classifications. Bazzana’s strikeout had ended on a high fastball; Adell’s ended below the zone. The sequences show contrasting finishes after Martinez acquired earlier strikes. They cannot establish that every pitch reached an intended catcher target.

Hard contact and relief support belong in the line

The first inning was less comfortable than two hits over 5⅓ innings might suggest. Steven Kwan singled, advanced on a wild pitch and scored on Chase DeLauter’s 109.1 mph single. Victor Mesa Jr. threw DeLauter out trying for second. Adell followed with a 106.8 mph flyout to left. Both hard-hit balls came against sinkers.

Martinez allowed no more hits. Still, Patrick Bailey hit a fifth-inning cutter at 102.1 mph and grounded into a double play after Bazzana walked. The two outs were valuable, yet the contact was hard. Cleveland’s 13 balls in play averaged 81.9 mph, with three reaching the 95 mph hard-hit threshold. The displayed Statcast hit probabilities sum to approximately 3.81 expected hits on contact, compared with two actual hits. That calculation uses rounded per-ball estimates rather than an official aggregate statistic, but it reinforces the contribution of favorable contact outcomes.

After a 22-pitch first inning, each of the next four required between 11 and 13, putting Martinez at 71 through five. He walked Petey Halpin to open the sixth, retired Brayan Rocchio and departed with Tampa Bay leading 2-1. Freddy Peralta stranded Halpin, getting two outs around a José Ramírez walk. Martinez’s one-run line includes relief support at a consequential moment.

His four-seamer averaged 94.1 mph in the first and 93.2 in the partial sixth, with only three measured pitches in each. Those small samples do not diagnose fatigue. His last two innings included both walks, even as he kept Cleveland hitless.

The question for his next outing is whether the changeup can retain its taken strikes and soft contact against a lineup with more right-handed opportunities. Game 4 supplied several ways to reach an out, while its early hard contact and late walks showed why the result still needed help.