Bryan Baker Uses 10 Changeups to Close Rays’ ALCS Game 5 Win

Bryan Baker opened the ninth inning with an eight-pitch walk to Chase DeLauter. Jo Adell hit the first pitch he saw at 106.9 mph, a ground ball to shortstop Taylor Walls, who threw to Richie Palacios for a forceout at second. Baker had his first out, but Cleveland still had a runner aboard and the tying run at the plate.

Baker then threw five consecutive changeups to finish the ninth inning of Tampa Bay’s 3–1 victory over Cleveland in ALCS Game 5 on Sunday, October 18, at Progressive Field. He earned his fifth postseason save with one hitless, scoreless inning, one walk and no strikeouts. The Rays took a 3–2 series lead and moved one win from the World Series.

The 14-pitch outing relied more heavily on the changeup than either his previous appearance or his regular season. It also showed why the save needs more explanation than the hit column: Baker issued a walk, allowed one sharply hit grounder and recorded all three outs on contact. His four-seam fastball was faster than in Game 4, while remaining below its regular-season average.

Ten changeups in a 14-pitch save

Baker threw 10 changeups and four four-seam fastballs, giving the changeup a 71.4% share. His 2026 regular-season baseline was 428 changeups among 977 physical pitches, or 43.8%. The increase was 27.6 percentage points, with no sliders in Game 5.

The immediate postseason comparison was different, too. In his 12-pitch Game 4 outing the previous night, Baker threw seven fastballs and five changeups. That game remains a separate postseason sample; it is not added to the regular-season baseline.

The hitters and counts matter to that comparison. Three of Sunday’s four batters hit left-handed, accounting for 13 pitches. Baker threw 10 changeups in that group, or 76.9%, compared with 49.1% against left-handed hitters during the regular season, 245 of 499 pitches. Adell, the only right-handed hitter, swung at the only pitch he saw. That uneven exposure limits what this inning can establish about a continuing change in selection.

The walk that consumed more than half the inning

DeLauter’s eight pitches accounted for more than half of Baker’s total. Baker reached a 1–2 count with a called changeup strike followed by a called fastball strike at 93.8 mph. Two of his next three pitches were changeups below DeLauter’s recorded zone; DeLauter took both for balls, with a foul between them.

At 3–2, DeLauter fouled off a 92.8 mph fastball and watched a 93.7 mph fastball miss horizontally beyond the plate. The two-strike advantage had become a leadoff walk. The sequence supplies a counterweight to the higher changeup share: the pitch also contributed two of the balls that extended the inning.

Those locations describe where the pitches finished, not whether they missed a catcher’s intended target. The diagram uses Baseball Savant’s plate coordinates and the hitter’s recorded zone. Its ball-center rectangle is a measurement convention, not a replay judgment of the called strikes.

How the changeup produced the final two outs

Adell’s forceout came on Baker’s fastest pitch, a 94.8 mph four-seamer, with a launch angle of minus 10 degrees. It was the inning’s only hard-hit ball, using the 95 mph exit-speed threshold. Savant assigned the contact a .380 expected batting average. That estimate describes the tracked contact; it does not change the actual forceout or credit Baker with preventing a hard swing.

Against Nathaniel Lowe, Baker missed below the zone with an 84.1 mph changeup, then got a foul popup on an 81.8 mph changeup. Jonathan Aranda caught it near first base. The contact was measured at 69.6 mph with an 81-degree launch angle, a different kind of out from Adell’s low grounder.

Travis Bazzana then missed changeups at 81.1 and 85.4 mph, both below his recorded vertical zone. Baker’s third changeup, 84.0 mph, produced an 85.7 mph ground ball to Palacios for the final out. Adell had advanced to second on defensive indifference during the plate appearance; the advance was not a stolen base.

Baker’s seven swings produced two misses, both on changeups, alongside two fouls and three balls in play. He acquired two other strikes on takes. The final hitter’s early misses helped him reach a favorable count, but the inning ended with a groundout rather than a strikeout. Walls, Palacios and Aranda converted the contact into the three outs.

Fastball speed rises from Game 4, with a small sample

Sunday’s four fastballs averaged 93.8 mph. That was 1.3 mph above the seven-fastball average in Game 4, 92.5, and 2.5 mph below his regular-season average of 96.3 over 517 four-seamers. The changeup averaged 83.2 mph over 10 pitches, compared with 85.2 over 428 during the regular season.

The speed comparison describes two individual innings, not a diagnosis of Baker’s condition. There is no within-outing velocity trend to draw from one inning, and four fastballs do not establish a new normal. The workload was 14 pitches to four batters, including eight to the first and six to the remaining three combined.

Baker’s scoreless streak reaches 13 appearances

The scoreless stretch now covers 13 appearances and 13 1/3 innings from September 8 through October 18, combining the regular season and postseason. Baker has allowed five hits and four walks with nine strikeouts while recording 40 outs in that span. His last charged run came against Texas on September 4, when he recorded no outs.

The postseason portion is six scoreless innings across six appearances, with one hit, two walks and six strikeouts. He has converted all five October save opportunities. His regular-season pitch comparison covers a separate 65-appearance sample.

Game 5 extended the run through two softer changeup contacts after the opening walk and Adell’s hard grounder. The next useful test is whether Baker continues throwing changeups this often against left-handed hitters, and whether the fastball moves closer to its regular-season speed. This inning established how he finished a two-run save; it left those longer-term questions open.