Roki Sasaki, Pitch by Pitch: NLCS Game 3 Analysis

Brice Turang survived two fastballs above 100 mph and a two-strike splitter before chopping Roki Sasaki’s seventh pitch of their eighth-inning plate appearance into a single. The ball left the bat at 61.9 mph with a recorded launch angle of minus 37 degrees.

William Contreras followed with another splitter single, this one at 83.0 mph. Sasaki had opened the inning with Jackson Chourio’s groundout, but the two hits left runners at first and third with one out. Justin Wrobleski entered, and Turang later scored on a wild pitch. That run remained charged to Sasaki in the Dodgers’ 6–2 loss.

Sasaki’s official line was one-third of an inning, two hits, one earned run, no walks and no strikeouts on 14 pitches. The matching-role baseline is only 48 physical pitches in three regular-season Dodgers relief appearances from September 22 through September 27. His much larger starting sample is kept separate.

More splitters against a small relief baseline

Eight splitters accounted for 57.1% of the outing, compared with 31.2% in the relief baseline. Five four-seamers and one slider completed the mix. The splitter averaged 91.2 mph against 91.7 in the comparison sample, and the four-seamer averaged 99.8 against 99.2.

The five fastballs drew five swing attempts, including one miss. Splitters drew five attempts and one miss, while the lone slider also produced a miss. Sasaki therefore collected three misses in 11 total attempts but no called strikes. Five fouls allowed hitters to continue plate appearances that had already reached two strikes.

Turang’s sequence illustrates the extra work. After an opening fastball miss and two low splitter balls, he fouled off fastballs at 100.4 and 100.7 mph, then a 91.4 mph splitter. He put the next splitter into play on the same 2–2 count. All three eventual balls in play against Sasaki came from splitters.

Soft contact left runners for the next pitcher

Chourio’s groundout was measured at 88.3 mph, Turang’s single at 61.9 and Contreras’ at 83.0. Their average exit velocity was 77.7 mph, with no hard-hit ball. Two hits and a charged run therefore conceal how little authority Milwaukee produced on contact in this short appearance.

The run crossed after Sasaki left. Wrobleski inherited two runners, allowed Turang to score on a wild pitch and stranded Contreras with consecutive strikeouts. The charged run belongs in Sasaki’s official line, while the wild pitch belongs to Wrobleski’s event record.

The immediate result was unfavorable despite soft contact and retained fastball speed. The next relief appearance would test whether the heavier splitter share continues and whether two-strike counts turn into finished plate appearances. The three-appearance season baseline makes that usage comparison especially sensitive to a small number of pitches.