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MLB · Pitching Data

Justin Wrobleski, Pitch by Pitch: NLCS Game 3 Analysis

Wrobleski struck out his first three hitters, but a wild pitch scored an inherited runner and a ninth-inning single added a run of his own. His 32 pitches explain the difference.

Justin Wrobleski beside an illustrative pitching analysis panel
Justin Wrobleski in an official MLB file photograph. Capture date is not supplied. Analytical panel is illustrative and does not reconstruct an actual pitch sequence. · Credit: MLB.com; analytical composition by The Sporting Page
IP1.2
H2
R / ER1 / 1
BB0
K3
Pitches32

Justin Wrobleski reached two strikes against Christian Yelich immediately after entering the eighth. A slider foul and a missed 97.1 mph fastball put him ahead, but the next slider escaped for a wild pitch that scored Brice Turang from third. Wrobleski recovered to strike Yelich out on an 85.9 mph sweeper.

The run belonged to Roki Sasaki, who had left runners at first and third with one out. Wrobleski then struck out Jake Bauers to strand the remaining runner. His final line included five outs, two hits, one earned run, no walks and three strikeouts on 32 pitches in Los Angeles’ 6–2 Game 3 loss.

The comparison uses 192 physical pitches in six regular-season Dodgers relief appearances from March 30 through September 27. It excludes his starting work, which would otherwise dominate a full-season pitch sample and blur the role comparison.

Pitch selection

Season repertoire and Game 3

Scale: 0–100%. Gray: regular season. Blue: Game 3.

Four-seam fastball

Season
45.8% (88)
Game 3
53.1% (17)

Change: +7.3 percentage points.

Slider

Season
33.9% (65)
Game 3
21.9% (7)

Change: -12.0 percentage points.

Sweeper

Season
5.2% (10)
Game 3
18.8% (6)

Change: +13.5 percentage points.

Changeup

Season
0.5% (1)
Game 3
3.1% (1)

Change: +2.6 percentage points.

Sinker

Season
10.4% (20)
Game 3
3.1% (1)

Change: -7.3 percentage points.

Cutter

Season
3.1% (6)
Game 3
0.0% (0)

Change: -3.1 percentage points.

Curveball

Season
1.0% (2)
Game 3
0.0% (0)

Change: -1.0 percentage points.

How did selection change? Game 3: 32 physical pitches. Season: 192 pitches in 6 relief appearances for Los Angeles Dodgers, 2026-03-30 through 2026-09-27. Every bar starts at zero and uses the same 0–100% scale. Counts appear in parentheses, and unused season classifications remain at zero. Source: Baseball Savant gamefeed and Statcast Search. One outing and a different hitter sample limit interpretation.

Pitch selection SVG

Five classifications and three strikeout finishes

Wrobleski threw 17 four-seamers, seven sliders, six sweepers, one changeup and one sinker. The four-seam share rose from 45.8% in the relief baseline to 53.1%, while the sweeper rose from 5.2% to 18.8%. Slider share fell from 33.9% to 21.9%. The six-appearance baseline makes these descriptive differences rather than an established new pattern.

Four-seamers averaged 96.9 mph against 95.6 in the comparison sample. They supplied five called strikes and two misses in seven attempts. Sliders and sweepers each supplied another miss, and the lone changeup was taken for a strike. Overall, hitters missed four of 14 attempts, while Wrobleski added eight called strikes.

He finished each of his three strikeouts with a different classification: Yelich on the sweeper, Bauers on a called slider and Garrett Mitchell on a called four-seamer to open the ninth. That variety matters more than crediting all three outs to the pitch that appeared most often.

Pitch measurements and hitter response

Game 3 by pitch type
PitchCountMean mphMax mphMean spin rpmInduced vertical break in.Horizontal movement magnitude in.Misses / attemptsCalled strikes
Four-seam fastball1796.998.1256816.36.12 / 75
Slider788.890.42666-1.34.41 / 51
Sweeper685.887.02709-2.616.51 / 21
Changeup183.683.616273.214.30 / 01
Sinker195.995.923499.117.50 / 00

All outing pitches have speed, spin, movement, extension and plate-location measurements. Movement uses Savant’s explicit induced-vertical and horizontal fields. Misses include caught foul tips and missed bunts under the event definitions below. Pitch-type movement averages use all pitches of that classification.

A revealing confrontation

Christian Yelich: inning 8

2026-10-14T22:30:06.107824 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ −2 −1 0 1 2 Horizontal plate location (ft) 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Height at plate (ft) Catcher view 1 2 3 4 5 2026-10-14T22:30:06.212463 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ −2 −1 0 1 2 Horizontal plate location (ft) 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Height at plate (ft) Catcher view 1 2 3 4 5
How did the plate appearance develop? Outing pitches 1–5. Christian Yelich strikes out swinging. The 17-inch-wide rectangle uses the first pitch’s recorded vertical boundaries, 1.700–3.368 ft. Markers retain exact coordinates and are not ball size. Overlaps can be resolved with the numbered sequence list and detail buttons. Source: Baseball Savant locations and official MLB final calls.

At-bat diagram SVG

One inherited run and one charged run

The opening wild pitch scored an inherited runner and moved Contreras to second. Contreras did not score. Wrobleski’s own charged run came in the ninth, when Cooper Pratt singled, stole second after a review upheld the safe call, and scored on Joey Ortiz’s 95.0 mph single.

Four balls were put into play against Wrobleski. Their average exit velocity was 81.9 mph, with Ortiz’s single the only one to reach the hard-hit threshold. The hardest contact arrived after a seven-pitch plate appearance in which Ortiz fouled off two two-strike offerings before grounding a slider through for the hit.

Wrobleski used 10 pitches for the final two outs of the eighth and 22 in the ninth. His four-seamer averaged 97.4 mph on four measured pitches in the eighth and 96.7 on 13 in the ninth. Those are the actual samples behind the difference; the record supplies no diagnosis of fatigue.

The appearance showed several ways to finish hitters, but it also contained two distinct scoring events. Keeping the inherited runner separate from Pratt’s run preserves both the official one-run line and the fuller account of how Milwaukee added its last two runs.

Workload and speed

Inning samples in context

2026-10-14T22:30:06.333090 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ 8* 9 Inning (* partial work) 0 10 20 30 40 50 Pitches 10 32 Cumulative physical pitches 8* 9 Inning (* partial work) 80 85 90 95 100 mph (80–104 scale) 97.4 n=4 96.7 n=13 Mean four-seam fastball speed 2026-10-14T22:30:06.482968 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ 8* 9 Inning (* partial work) 0 10 20 30 40 50 Pitches 10 32 Cumulative physical pitches 8* 9 Inning (* partial work) 80 85 90 95 100 mph (80–104 scale) 97.4 n=4 96.7 n=13 Mean four-seam fastball speed
Workload and four-seam fastball samples
InningPitchesCumulativeFour-seam fastball mphMeasured nOuts
8*101097.442
9223296.7133
Cumulative pitches start at zero. Velocity shows this outing’s most-used classification, four-seam fastball, on the explicitly truncated 80–104 mph scale used in all eight papers. Each velocity point labels its measured pitch count. Different pitch classifications are identified rather than treated as interchangeable. Separate axes do not establish that workload causes a speed change. Partial work: inning 8: entered with 1 out(s), recorded 2. Source: final MLB sequence and Baseball Savant.

Workload SVG

Complete physical pitch record

Every pitch: 32 of 32

Search a hitter, select an inning or pitch type, then inspect a pitch number. Pitch result and completed plate-appearance outcome are separate columns. The table scrolls within its border.

32 of 32 pitches

Justin Wrobleski: NLCS Game 3 physical pitches
PitchInningHitterCount beforeTypemphPitch resultCompleted PA
8Christian Yelich0–0SL88.6FoulStrikeout
8Christian Yelich0–1FF97.1Swinging StrikeStrikeout
8Christian Yelich0–2SL88.0BallStrikeout
8Christian Yelich1–2FF97.6BallStrikeout
8Christian Yelich2–2ST85.9Swinging StrikeStrikeout
8Jake Bauers0–0ST84.9BallStrikeout
8Jake Bauers1–0FF97.1Swinging StrikeStrikeout
8Jake Bauers1–1FF97.8BallStrikeout
8Jake Bauers2–1SL89.7Swinging StrikeStrikeout
8Jake Bauers2–2SL88.4Called StrikeStrikeout
9Garrett Mitchell0–0SI95.9BallStrikeout
9Garrett Mitchell1–0FF96.0Called StrikeStrikeout
9Garrett Mitchell1–1ST87.0BallStrikeout
9Garrett Mitchell2–1FF96.6Called StrikeStrikeout
9Garrett Mitchell2–2FF97.8Called StrikeStrikeout
9Cooper Pratt0–0ST85.8Called StrikeSingle
9Cooper Pratt0–1FF98.1BallSingle
9Cooper Pratt1–1FF97.4BallSingle
9Cooper Pratt2–1ST86.0In play, no outSingle
9Luis Lara0–0FF96.2Called StrikeLineout
9Luis Lara0–1FF96.0FoulLineout
9Luis Lara0–2FF96.7In play, out(s)Lineout
9Joey Ortiz0–0ST85.4BallSingle
9Joey Ortiz1–0FF96.4FoulSingle
9Joey Ortiz1–1FF96.9BallSingle
9Joey Ortiz2–1FF95.2FoulSingle
9Joey Ortiz2–2FF97.4FoulSingle
9Joey Ortiz2–2SL90.4FoulSingle
9Joey Ortiz2–2SL88.9In play, run(s)Single
9Jackson Chourio0–0CH83.6Called StrikeGroundout
9Jackson Chourio0–1FF96.8Called StrikeGroundout
9Jackson Chourio0–2SL87.6In play, out(s)Groundout
Select a pitch number to inspect speed, movement, location and contact.
Download all 32 pitches as CSV
Sources, definitions and limitations

The official final MLB record supplies events, final calls and the line. Baseball Savant’s complete Game 3 feed supplies all 32 physical pitches. Pitch ID, order, classification and pre-pitch count reconcile, including final ABS decisions. These records contain 7 batters, 5 integer outs and 3 strikeouts. In baseball notation, .1 means one out and .2 two outs. Source records current as of October 14, 2026.

The Statcast Search baseline is 192 physical pitches in 6 regular-season relief appearances for Los Angeles Dodgers, 2026-03-30 through 2026-09-27. Each game total reconciles with the official appearance log. Target game, postseason work, other clubs and other roles are excluded.

Whiff rate means misses divided by physical swing attempts. Swinging strikes, blocked swinging strikes, caught foul tips and missed bunts count as misses. Fouls, bunt attempts and balls put into play enter the attempt denominator. Both outing and baseline use the same definitions. Called strikes and completed strikeout plate appearances are separate. Chase uses ball-center coordinates outside a 17-inch-wide rectangle and each pitch’s recorded vertical boundaries. Only complete coordinates enter the zone denominator. Savant’s separate zone flag remains in the CSV and detail rather than replacing that geometric definition.

Speed is mph, spin rpm, extension feet and movement inches. Induced vertical break describes movement relative to a gravity-only path. Location and zone boundaries are feet in catcher view. Numbered markers preserve exact coordinates and are not ball size. Release, location, spin, extension and movement measurements are complete for all outing pitches. Contact and expected-outcome measurements can be unavailable and remain missing in the detail and CSV. 4 of 4 balls put into play have measured exit speed. Hard-hit means at least 95 mph; the baseline has 39 measured contacts among 39. Expected outcomes are Savant model estimates, not actual results. The comparisons are descriptive and do not establish intention, fatigue, injury or a durable trend.

Reading the rates

Called strikes plus misses: 12 / 32 physical pitches (37.5%). Swinging-strike rate: 4 / 32 (12.5%). Whiff rate: 4 / 14 swing attempts (28.6%). Chase: 7 / 20 pitches outside the ball-center rectangle (35.0%). All 32 pitches have usable zone coordinates. Rates use final corrected calls and retain caught foul tips in the miss category.

The MLB and Savant raw fields are preserved separately in the downloadable record. Savant plate coordinates define the plotted locations and the zone calculation. MLB coordinates can use a different reference plane. Unavailable expected-outcome values and launch angles remain blank. The CSV distinguishes the pitch result from the completed plate-appearance outcome.

Sources and notes

  1. Official final MLB Game 849811: https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1.1/game/849811/feed/live
  2. Baseball Savant complete game: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gf?game_pk=849811
  3. Regular season, matching club and role: 192 physical pitches, 2026-03-30 through 2026-09-27. Per-appearance totals reconciled.
  4. Pitch definitions: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/csv-docs