Gerrit Cole has given the Yankees something substantial: effective major-league starts after Tommy John surgery. He has not been back for a full year. He missed 2025 and returned on May 22, 2026. His comeback is a little over three months old.
Through his September 1 start, Cole’s official line reads: 18 starts, 104 innings, an 8–7 record, a 3.29 ERA, 110 strikeouts and 22 walks. His WHIP is 1.11. Over his last seven starts, he has a 2.36 ERA in 42 innings. This is more than a feel-good return appearance.
The velocity has returned
Baseball Savant’s season data puts his average four-seam fastball at 96.8 mph. That exceeds 2024’s 95.9 and narrowly tops the 96.7 recorded during his 2023 Cy Young season. Reduced arm speed is not the obvious limitation in these results.
| Measure | 2023 | 2024 | 2026* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam velocity | 96.7 mph | 95.9 mph | 96.8 mph |
| Strikeout rate | 27.0% | 25.4% | 25.8% |
| Walk rate | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% |
| Whiff rate | 26.2% | 24.8% | 22.1% |
| Hard-hit rate allowed | 39.2% | 39.5% | 43.8% |
*2026 through September 1. Source: Baseball Savant. Strikeout and walk rates use plate appearances; whiff rate measures misses per swing. Hard-hit rate is the share of batted balls hit at least 95 mph. Unequal workloads matter when comparing seasons.
Why “all the way back” is premature
The walk rate is a strength, and a 3.40 expected ERA sits close to his actual 3.29. Those indicators support the performance. But hitters are missing less often than in 2023 and making hard contact more frequently. Velocity alone cannot tell us that every pitch has regained its old effectiveness.
Nor can 104 innings answer the workload question that a full season and postseason would pose. The September 1 outing—three earned runs and eight hits in 5⅓ innings against the Angels—is a useful reminder that an encouraging trend still contains ordinary, imperfect starts.
TSP’s assessment: Cole is back as a credible, productive Yankees starter, with his fastball speed restored and his walks under control. Calling him the complete 2023 version requires more evidence, especially sustained bat-missing and durability. The comeback deserves credit without borrowing certainty from the name on his jersey.
