Misiorowski’s 104.8-mph first pitch and the foul balls that shortened his start

Jacob Misiorowski opened his first postseason start with a 104.8-mph fastball for a called strike against Fernando Tatis Jr. The more revealing number from his four innings against San Diego was the work required to secure 12 outs.

The Sporting Page’s count of the official October 3 game feed reproduces all 88 pitches in the box score. Misiorowski allowed two runs on four hits, struck out six and walked one. Milwaukee won 3–2 after he left with a no-decision.

MLB.com reported the opening fastball as the fastest postseason pitch recorded during the tracking era that began in 2008. That claim describes the available record, rather than every postseason pitch in baseball history.

Fastball contact drove the workload

Misiorowski threw 60 four-seam fastballs, 68.2% of his pitches. They averaged 101.3 mph, but produced only four misses on 28 swings, a 14.3% whiff rate under the definition used here.

Of the 30 foul events in the outing, 22 came against the fastball. The game feed records 29 ordinary fouls and one foul bunt. Those 30 events account for 34.1% of the entire pitch count.

This distinction explains why velocity and efficiency can move in different directions. A foul can keep a hitter from reaching base while still forcing the pitcher to deliver again. High speed did not consistently turn fastball swings into missed bats in this game.

The innings show where the pitches accumulated

Misiorowski used 25 pitches in the first inning and 33 in the second, leaving him at 58 after six outs. The second included three singles and a walk as San Diego scored both of its runs.

A nine-pitch third inning reduced the immediate strain. The fourth then required 21 pitches despite producing only three plate appearances, one of which ended in a double play. San Diego fouled off 10 pitches in that inning.

¹ Ordinary fouls plus one foul bunt. ² Ordinary fouls with two strikes before the pitch; foul bunts excluded.

Seventeen ordinary fouls were hit with two strikes already on the batter. Those events did not advance the strike count. The count uses the state before the pitch; a foul that merely creates strike two is excluded.

The curveball supplied six of Misiorowski’s 11 swinging misses. Its 54.5% whiff rate came from just 11 swings, so it is evidence about this outing rather than a stable estimate of the pitch’s quality.

What the start supports

The evidence supports a narrow explanation for the early exit: San Diego prolonged enough plate appearances to drive the pitch count to 88 in four innings. It does not establish how many innings Misiorowski would have pitched with fewer fouls, or that a particular pitch selection would have produced a better result.

For the Dodgers matchup, the relevant question is whether he can convert more two-strike swings into outs without surrendering dangerous contact. The first pitch demonstrates his maximum velocity. The full game shows why that maximum is an incomplete description of the start.