{ "game_id": "2026_05_BUF_LA", "quarterback": "Josh Allen", "player_id": "00-0034857", "units": { "epa": "expected points", "rates": "percent (%) on a 0 to 100 scale; differences between rates are percentage points", "yards": "yards" }, "definitions": { "dropback": "Quarterback-related throw, sack or source-classified scramble. Exclude no_play, deleted play, two-point attempt, spike and kneel. EPA denominator requires all events to have non-missing EPA.", "throw": "Counted quarterback dropback with pass_attempt==1 and sack!=1. Spikes excluded.", "sack": "Counted quarterback dropback with sack==1.", "scramble": "Counted quarterback dropback with qb_scramble==1.", "other_qb_run": "Counted QB rushing event with qb_scramble!=1 and qb_kneel!=1; separate from dropbacks. This source category does not establish intended play design.", "all_counted_qb_involvements": "Mutually exclusive throws, sacks, source-classified scrambles and other non-kneel QB runs. Excludes no-play events, deleted plays, two-point attempts, spikes and kneels.", "success": "Event EPA > 0 divided by eligible events. This is a play outcome metric.", "first_down_or_touchdown": "Unique event satisfying first_down==1, pass_touchdown==1 or rush_touchdown==1 divided by eligible events. Includes recorded first downs through penalties, separately counted. Defensive return touchdowns never count as an offensive success.", "third_fourth_conversion": "Standardized third_down_converted/fourth_down_converted==1 divided by eligible QB dropbacks on that down. Automatic first-down penalties and first-down outcomes are separately shown. These are QB dropback subsets, not team conversion rates.", "red_zone": "Pre-snap yardline_100 <=20. Based on counted QB dropbacks; separate non-scramble rushing TDs are outside this denominator.", "early_downs": "Counted quarterback dropbacks on first or second down.", "long_yardage": "Counted quarterback dropbacks with pre-snap ydstogo >=7. Seven yards is an explicit editorial threshold, not an NFL statistical standard.", "expected_yac": "Observed yards_after_catch minus xyac_mean_yardage on covered completed throws. Primary subset excludes penalties and lateral receptions. Missing model values remain missing; separate sensitivity retains covered penalties/laterals.", "qb_epa_sensitivity": "nflfastR receiver-fumble adjustment shown alongside event EPA. Still includes receiver, blocker and play-design outcomes; not a film or isolated QB grade." }, "samples": { "game": { "games": [ { "game_id": "2026_05_BUF_LA", "date": "2026-10-12" } ], "components": { "all_counted_qb_involvements": { "events": 30, "epa_covered_events": 30, "epa_total": 20.05418786600549, "epa_per_event": 0.6684729288668496, "positive_epa_events": 19, "success_pct": 63.333333333333336, "first_down_events": 15, "first_down_pct": 50.0, "offensive_touchdown_events": 2, "offensive_touchdown_pct": 6.666666666666667, "first_down_or_touchdown_events": 15, "first_down_or_touchdown_pct": 50.0, "first_down_penalty_events": 1, "penalty_events": 2, "play_ids": [ 90, 113, 562, 621, 767, 789, 1333, 1384, 1416, 1897, 1955, 2542, 2565, 2788, 2813, 2902, 2937, 2984, 3039, 3432, 3454, 3512, 3903, 3947, 3994, 4065, 4538, 4579, 4891, 4913 ], "event_refs": [ { "game_id": "2026_05_BUF_LA", "play_id": 90 }, { "game_id": "2026_05_BUF_LA", "play_id": 113 }, { "game_id": "2026_05_BUF_LA", 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Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LAC-0-D.Henley at BUF 28. Fumble Forced by 0-D.Henley." }, { "game_id": "2026_03_LAC_BUF", "date": "2026-09-27", "play_id": 480, "quarter": 1, "clock": "08:21", "down": 3.0, "distance": 9, "field_position": "BUF 47", "event_type": "Sack", "receiver": null, "gross_passing_yards": null, "gross_rushing_yards": null, "net_play_yards": -13.0, "epa": -2.16679039318115, "penalty": false, "source_description": "(8:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 34 for -13 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu)." } ], "expected_yac": { "total_completions": 79, "model_covered_completions": 76, "model_missing_completions": 3, "model_missing_play_ids": [ 1146, 1712, 4030 ], "model_missing_event_details": [ { "game_id": "2026_02_DET_BUF", "play_id": 1146, "passing_touchdown": true, "caught_at_goal_line": true, "observed_yac_yards": 0.0 }, { "game_id": "2026_02_DET_BUF", "play_id": 1712, "passing_touchdown": true, "caught_at_goal_line": true, "observed_yac_yards": 0.0 }, { "game_id": "2026_04_NE_BUF", "play_id": 4030, "passing_touchdown": true, "caught_at_goal_line": true, "observed_yac_yards": 0.0 } ], "removed_penalty_or_lateral_completions": 2, "primary_clean_covered_completions": { "completions": 74, "observed_yac_yards": 404.0, "model_expected_yac_yards": 414.89124398391857, "yac_above_expected_yards": -10.89124398391857, "yac_above_expected_yards_per_completion": -0.14717897275565636, "play_ids": [ 86, 839, 952, 1520, 1828, 1853, 1885, 2431, 2456, 2583, 2806, 2874, 3363, 3388, 3435, 3998, 4026, 4063, 4152, 74, 243, 518, 570, 640, 942, 972, 997, 1957, 1985, 2865, 2890, 2937, 3072, 3662, 3954, 4014, 4038, 368, 420, 1374, 1471, 1496, 1837, 1925, 1957, 1982, 2014, 2812, 2861, 3079, 3385, 4061, 95, 580, 610, 674, 735, 767, 825, 887, 937, 1245, 1684, 1736, 2140, 2179, 2889, 2951, 3252, 3518, 3576, 3656, 4002, 4338 ] }, "sensitivity_all_covered_completions": { "completions": 76, "observed_yac_yards": 423.0, "model_expected_yac_yards": 422.8430890697781, "yac_above_expected_yards": 0.15691093022189762, "yac_above_expected_yards_per_completion": 0.0020646175029197054, "play_ids": [ 86, 385, 839, 952, 1520, 1828, 1853, 1885, 2431, 2456, 2583, 2806, 2874, 3363, 3388, 3435, 3998, 4026, 4063, 4152, 74, 243, 518, 570, 640, 942, 972, 997, 1957, 1985, 2865, 2890, 2937, 3072, 3662, 3954, 4014, 4038, 368, 420, 1374, 1471, 1496, 1837, 1925, 1957, 1982, 2014, 2812, 2861, 3079, 3385, 3478, 4061, 95, 580, 610, 674, 735, 767, 825, 887, 937, 1245, 1684, 1736, 2140, 2179, 2889, 2951, 3252, 3518, 3576, 3656, 4002, 4338 ] } }, "receiver_fumble_sensitivity": { "event_epa_total": 38.833348399624604, "event_epa_per_dropback": 0.285539326467828, "nflfastr_qb_epa_total": 45.84534032615171, "nflfastr_qb_epa_per_dropback": 0.3370980906334684, "adjusted_events": 2, "adjusted_play_ids": [ 2861, 2179 ] }, "completion_yard_reconciliation": { "official_gross_passing_yards": 1039.0, "net_completed_air_yards": 606.0, "receiver_yac_yards": 423.0, "residual_yards": 10.0, "residual_events": [ { "game_id": "2026_01_BUF_HOU", "date": "2026-09-13", "play_id": 385, "quarter": 1, "clock": "08:14", "down": 3.0, "distance": 12, "field_position": "HOU 34", "event_type": "Throw", "receiver": "K.Coleman", "gross_passing_yards": 11.0, "gross_rushing_yards": null, "net_play_yards": 11.0, "epa": 0.995897284825332, "penalty": false, "source_description": "(8:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to HOU 33 for 1 yard. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 23 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship)." } ] } } }, "league_pregame_context": { "sample": "2026 regular season Weeks 1 through 4, pooled source-classified dropbacks", "first_date": "2026-09-09", "last_date": "2026-10-05", "all_dropbacks": { "events": 4718, "game_count": 64, "team_count": 32, "event_epa_total": 332.29340833632523, "event_epa_per_event": 0.07043098947357465, "positive_epa_events": 2165, "success_pct": 45.88808817295464 }, "throws_and_sacks": { "events": 4475, "game_count": 64, "team_count": 32, "event_epa_total": 224.62423227763986, "event_epa_per_event": 0.05019535916818768, "positive_epa_events": 2024, "success_pct": 45.229050279329606 }, "throws": { "events": 4196, "game_count": 64, "team_count": 32, "event_epa_total": 718.5341465421286, "event_epa_per_event": 0.17124264693568364, "positive_epa_events": 2023, "success_pct": 48.21258341277407 }, "sacks": { "events": 279, "game_count": 61, "team_count": 31, "event_epa_total": -493.9099142644887, "event_epa_per_event": -1.770286431055515, "positive_epa_events": 1, "success_pct": 0.35842293906810035 }, "scrambles": { "events": 243, "game_count": 61, "team_count": 31, "event_epa_total": 107.66917605868548, "event_epa_per_event": 0.4430830290480884, "positive_epa_events": 141, "success_pct": 58.02469135802469 }, "note": "This is pooled league play context, not a ranking, opponent adjustment or equally weighted quarterback average. It retains whole-event EPA and source-classified quarterback dropbacks, including any non-QB trick-play passer identified by that source classification." }, "caveats": [ "Allen game EPA includes two penalized dropbacks. His third-quarter third-and-13 nine-yard scramble has defensive holding: first-down outcome true, standardized third_down_converted false. His overtime completion has offensive holding and gross passing yards differ from net play yards.", "Allen baseline completed air plus receiver YAC understates official passing yards by 10. Week 1 game 2026_01_BUF_HOU play 385 includes a Coleman-to-Shakir lateral. Current-game decomposition fully reconciles.", "Four prior games are a descriptive pooled baseline, not an opponent adjustment or proof of a stable player trait. Current game is excluded. Event EPA retains lost receiver fumbles; baseline QB EPA sensitivities identify their influence.", "Stafford has 37 modeled YAC completions out of 40. The three omitted completions are touchdown catches at the goal line, with zero observed YAC. nflfastR explicitly omits distance_to_goal==0 when calculating expected YAC; those model values remain missing rather than assumed zero. Allen has 12 of 12, with one penalized completion removed from the primary clean subset.", "Top/bottom plays identify recorded outcome swings, not independent play responsibility. Red-zone, third-down and other subsets are small; display counts and avoid unsupported rankings.", "The standardized touchdown flag can include an opponent interception-return touchdown. Offensive touchdown rates use pass_touchdown or rush_touchdown, avoiding the Stafford Week 3 pick-six being counted as his positive touchdown outcome.", "Correction identified in existing pilot metadata: Stafford baseline starts September 10, 2026, rather than the September 13 start shown in the current shared baseline text. Allen starts September 13. Both end October 4; the player samples list actual game dates.", "No pressure rate, coverage, route, intended read, decision grade, ball placement or All-22 review is inferred." ], "sources": [ { "title": "Current NFL final gamebook", "url": "https://static.www.nfl.com/image/upload/v1791892319/gamecenter/aa94ccd3-4feb-11f1-abca-2c54536568a9.pdf" }, { "title": "nflverse2026 PBPs", "url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz" }, { "title": "nflfastR QB EPA definition", "url": "https://nflfastr.com/reference/add_qb_epa.html" }, { "title": "nflfastR expected YAC method Example7", "url": "https://nflfastr.com/articles/nflfastR.html" }, { "title": "nflfastR expected YAC implementation and goal-line exclusion", "url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflfastR/blob/master/R/helper_add_xyac.R" } ] }